My view is that the market is undervalued, that it is priced to deliver attractive long-term returns, and that there is an increasing likelihood of a major bear market advance – but I don't believe that any of this puts a "floor" below the market in the very short term, and I don't believe markets are apt to bottom while everyone is still looking for a bottom.

As an economist, it's clear that the parallels to 1929 are terribly overblown, not least because unlike the Great Depression, governments in this instance have opened a floodgate of liquidity, capital and base money – which they failed to do back then. Even if we were to completely zero out two solid years of earnings for the S&P 500, the fact is that more than 90% of the value of U.S. stocks would reside in the cash flows beyond that point. The main issue for good, established companies here is not the risk to the long-term stream of cash flows, but to what extent the uncertainty about the coming year or two of earnings will frighten investors to sell at depressed prices (thereby pricing stocks to deliver even higher long-term returns).